ISSUE # 29b ... DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT ALGEBRA .... Part II
February 21
Paul Menter is also concerned about IRV. Paul's letter gives us the 30,000 foot view of the mess.
See his letter below. (Also see updatedinformation following the Orginal Posting.)
To the Editor,
I’ve been hearing the distant, gravelly voice of Edward P. Benton recently. My 8th grade social studies teacher’s mantra was …”You study the past so you can make better decisions in the present and improve the future.”
Or something like that…
There are certainly plenty of lessons from history going unobserved today. The one on my mind at the moment is elections. Back in 1787 the fifty-five arguably most intelligent men in the United States met in Philadelphia and birthed our Constitution and along with it the first version of our current national system for electing the President – the Electoral College.
It was brand new. Nothing like it had existed before. It had never been tested and there was no historical reference for use as a waypoint in crafting its structure or controlling for its unanticipated consequences. A compromise system, it gave power to the states to create whatever method they desired to vote for their electors who would then vote for the President.
It was nothing short of a disaster.
A series of unintended consequences spurred by Alexander Hamilton’s nefarious manipulations led to unexpected results in 1796 as opponents John Adams and Thomas Jefferson ended up serving together as President and Vice President, and in 1800, when the election was thrown to the House of Representatives for lack of a majority winner. It took 36 ballots over five days before Thomas Jefferson was narrowly elected days before Congress was to adjourn.
Constitutional crisis averted, just barely.
Monday night Aspen’s City Council will consider a new method of electing themselves called instant runoff voting, or “Irv” for short. Without any specifics, away back in November of 2007, Aspen’s voters granted the City carte blanche to create whatever “Irv” system they desired. Hmmm…Sound familiar?
Over a year later, a committee consisting of a few citizens and two (presumably) incumbent candidates unveiled two muddled options. With antiseptic terms to describe them, they sound more like euthanization procedures, “sequential elimination” and “batch elimination”, than election systems.
From these options I understand a third “compromise” solution has emerged; a sort of hybrid “two vote batch elimination” system.
It’s brand new; a system that has never been used anyplace else before for multi seat elections (like the Aspen City Council elections) and for which no historic reference exists for use as a “waypoint” to guide its development and avoid its unintended consequences. As you can imagine, rumors abound about the potential for Hamiltonian style manipulation. Sound familiar?
Technical in nature, the system requires that a custom, one of a kind software program be written in order to tabulate the votes. It is my understanding that Council are requiring no provisions for a secondary hand count or other method to confirm the results of this brand new election system that has never been used anywhere else in the Country and requires a custom software program. Sound familiar?
Our most sacred public process reduced to a black box? Hope I’m wrong!
What would Mr. Benton say? If we don’t heed the mistakes of the past they will haunt us. Aspen, prepare to be haunted.
Paul Menter
Comment from Marilyn 2.21.08:
In an unbelievable turn of events, the city staff is now recommending that council adopt a counting procedure Monday night that has not even been written. The public, including potential candidates, have not even had proper notice and opportunity to read the dozens of pages of the 2 other methods being discussed.
Furthering our suspicions is the fact that there is to be a special software program written for Aspen’s unique method of counting votes. There are no independent testing procedures in place for that new software program. And unbelievably, staff is recommending that the Council deny the citizens’ request for hand counting the ballots to verify the results.
See http://theredant.squarespace.com/storage/IRVMemo_2nd%20Reading_2.pdf
This train needs to be stopped.
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Neil Siegel writes about IRV---INSTANT CHAOS
The City Council is poised to enter the statistical morass of instant run-off voting ( IRV). There is one clear path, consistent with prior run-off practice, the recommendation of the taskforce and consent of the voting public, but given the track record of this incantation of city government to do as it sees fit, nothing is certain. The Council is messing with our votes that could dramatically effect the result of the election. It needs to get it right, there is no compromise, especially when different outcomes are possible.
On the table are two, possibility three schemes to eliminate candidates during IRV. The results vary from scheme to scheme, and critically can differ significantly from the method Aspen has historically used.
When the City Council approved Ordinance 38 calling for IRV and Resolution # 86 two reasons were given:
“ …..eliminating the need to conduct expensive run-off elections at a later date”
“…..the convenience of only having to vote once and financially responsible with taxpayer dollars”.
Never once was there any mention of any perceived defect in the method of vote tabulation used in past run-off elections.
The yeoman efforts of Kathryn Koch and Jim True deserve recognition. But for reasons yet explained implementation is about to run of the rails.
Nowhere in the United States has IRV ever been used in a multi-seat election requiring a majority. Aspen is the first, we are the white rats for IRV. There is no software in existence, to say nothing of vote certified software, to tabulate votes for an Aspen type IRV election. There is no plan to comprehensively test the IRV software and certify its accuracy. There is no contemplation than any hand recount will be possible to verify the results of the election. We are at the mercy of a “black box”.
Importantly, never was there any approval to substantively change the manner of candidate ranking and elimination, only to conduct the election at one time and avoid subsequent run-off elections. Now we are in a worse condition, the City Council incorrectly divining that it has a mandate to determine how our votes will be handled.
The City Council is asked to follow a runoff scheme advanced by the one recorded dissent of that task force, a sitting member of this council expected to seek re-election. Worse yet, the proposed methodology has a built-in bias for an incumbent.
The prudent and correct course is two-fold: [1] adopt the task force recommendation since it replicates most closely our own prior runoff process and most importantly comports with the legislative history and the public will and [2] use IRV this election as a test to gain confidence in the system.
Reader Comments (15)
Letter sent to Council 2.23.09
Mayor Ireland, and Councilmembers Johnson, Kasabach, Romero and Skadron,
By now, you know my objections to the IRV methodology process that Council put in place, so I won’t repeat those points.
It seems apparent that public did not understand the risks in what they voted for, and Council made no disclosures about such matters at that time of the November, 2007 ballot measure.
Council supported the vote only referencing efficiency and financial savings. Inadequate disclosures, it seems, for a ballot measure concerning election methods, in which Council would be given so much discretion.
I am posing the following questions, and requesting that the answers be made available to the public prior to a decision on IRV methodology by Council:
1) Were accurate and full disclosures about IRV complexities made to public at time of the November, 2007 ballot question? (Enough to withstand potential legal challenges?)
2) Do you believe that the public understood the risks inherent in the IRV system when they voted on it? (including that methods under consideration could produce different outcomes? Apparently the Task Force did not understand that until well into their deliberations.) If not, what actions will be taken to remedy this?
3) What advice has the City received from election law and methodology experts on percentage of spoiled ballots to expect in this multi-seat ranking election? (Informal conversations with experienced attorneys lead me to believe that the spoiled ballot percentage will likely be high.) Has this been factored into the decision?
4) How will you educate the public to reduce the number of spoiled ballots?
5) Will voters be given materials which fully explain the risks and benefits of voting strategies with IRV? There is a problem of having the “shrewd, educated” voters and then all others casting their votes at election time.
6) How will you develop public confidence and the system given its complexities potential failures and the fact that several people on the task force had inherent conflicts of interest?
7) Is there a clear and easy to understand chart or memo which gives adequate presentations of all methods currently being considered so the pros and cons of each method are fairly presented for benefit of the public and Council?
8) What is the reason for denying a hand count of the ballots? (if the previous answer of cost is the reason, what is the cost estimate?)
9) What is the cost of the TrueBallot software, travel and consulting? Is it more expensive than several elections of hand-counting ballots?
10) Will the TrueBallot software be certified by Colorado Secretary of State in time for the May election? (It appears that IRV software is not easy to certify, based on some states’ records.)
11) Does Aspen’s tabulation method require certification by the Sec of State?
12) What independent testing will be conducted on the TrueBallot customized software?
13) What work has been done to assess the potential constitutional challenges (unequal votes, etc.)? Do we have opinions from specialist attorneys on this matter, given that we are breaking new ground with a multi-seat, 50%+1 system ?
14) Please make public the legal work done to conclude that the various methods under consideration are in compliance with Sec 3.2 , Article III of our Charter, requiring the “highest number of votes” and “…50% plus one vote or more of the votes cast”, as the terms “votes” and “votes cast” may be defined by our charter or appropriate Colorado Statute.
15) Was the public notice given for the 2nd reading today legally adequate when the City has not made the proposed procedures available to the public as promised? As of this morning, the proposed procedures were still not available on the web. The staff recommended method does not seem have written procedures for the public to review. How can the public engage it’s elected officials on the decision with so little information?
Please see some of the comments posted by members of the public on this subject at :
http://theredant.squarespace.com/red-ant-blog/2009/2/21/dont-know-much-about-algebra-part-ii.html#comments
and
http://theredant.squarespace.com/red-ant-blog/2009/2/16/dont-know-much-about-algebra-issue-29.html#comments
Thank you for your consideration in ensuring that the public has an adequate level of knowledge to engage in the public process as you make your decisions. The public has a direct interest in the election process running smoothly and fairly and being protected from legitimate legal challenges.
Marilyn Marks
Aspen, CO