Aspen City Council Race---Non-monotonicity Examined

The worksheet linked below demonstrates the sensitivity of the outcome to therankings of fairly smallrange of voters (70-79 voters)and their relative ranking of Jack and Michael, and three differient resulting winners.

The principle being demonstrated is that sometimes giving a higher ranking to your favorite candidate may have a negative effect on his chances of winning. (see the case of the 71 Michael voters.)

http://theredant.squarespace.com/storage/Aspen%20city%20council%20non-monotonicity_b.pdf

And the background story:

http://theredant.squarespace.com/storage/MichaelMonotoneViolation..pdf

Take the post-election survey:

http://survey.constantcontact.com/survey/a07e2imsis1fumvwxa7/a0121fuunhl0z/greeting

Council Race, Seat #2--Puzzling IRV Findings

Aspen, Colorado just had its first experiment with an IRV election. There was plenty of warning beforehand that it wasn’t a good idea to be playing with matches without some adult supervision and serious thought However, in the rush to adopt IRV methods just weeks before the May election, the City got careless. We now have singed hair and blistered fingers as the details of the IRV black box are beginning to belatedly spill out. We managed to get through the election, with no big surprises in two races, but created a perverse puzzlement in one Council race. While there is much more to be analyzed, so far

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One Deal Over the Cuckoo's Nest---Aspen Style

DRIVING AROUND, LOOKING FOR "HISTORY" 

"I must be crazy to be in a loony bin like this."
R.P. McMurphy (Jack Nicholson's Character.) 

In 2000, Amy Guthrie, the City's Historic Preservation czarina, noticed a house at 312 W. Hyman while doing a "windshield survey" of Aspen properties which might have "historic character." She saw the house as potentially historic, as it vaguely resembles several local buildings mimicking the European "chalet-style.   

The Historic Preservation Commission (HPC) took a look. In addition to the original building permit from 1954 that establishes the structure as a pre-fabricated kit house, 312 W. Hyman Ave. is only a dolled-up ranch-style house, with some fancy trim added, and HPC's review -- marked "FINAL" -- determined that 312, much to the relief of the owner, did not have the historic significance to warrant involuntary (forced upon the owner) designation.

Shortly thereafter, owner Jordie Gerberg obtained

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Your Opinions on IRV. Take the Post-Election IRVSurvey

May 28th-- Error FoundMayoral Race IRV Software:

http://theredant.squarespace.com/storage/TallyCorrectedTB.pdf

Please share your thoughts on IRV in the recent Aspen Election.

http://survey.constantcontact.com/survey/a07e2imsis1fumvwxa7/start

See the results:

http://survey.constantcontact.com/survey/a07e2imsis1fumvwxa7/results

See entry below for interesting Election Statistics!

Five Different Counting Methods. Four Different

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Election Statistics (In process)

I found these Election Statistics quite interesting. Several people are working on more analyses. More stats will be added as we complete them. If you have a particular analysis you want to see, please make a request on the blog, and we will consider it.

Q: Correlate Museum vote to the Mayor’s vote:

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Link to Marilyn's Website for her Mayoral Candidacy

 Click through to Marilyn's website for  her Mayoral Candidacy.

http://electmarilynmarks.com

THE RED ANT FOR MAYOR!

Updated on March 25 by Marilyn

Updated on March 26 by Marilyn

Updated on March 27 by Marilyn

Press Release

March 23, 2009 (Aspen, CO) --

At the Zele coffee shop, across the street from City Hall, The Red Ant, a pesky 8-month-old solenopsis invicta, announced her candidacy for Mayor of Aspen, Colorado.

Known for her fiery style and demand for truth, accuracy, transparency and

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Ant Bite---The BMC HypoAppraisal

The long awaited BMC "appraisal"—sort of---has been released by the City. Initially, upon reading the newspapers last week,Aspenites were comforted by the assurance that the value was only $1.45 million less than the $16.8 million paid in December, 2007. But upon further examination of the appraisal, and discussions with real estate professionals, the City is once again being challenged with the outrageous spin they put on the so called, “appraisal.” (Reminds us of the bogus press releases issued after the Burlingame audits.)

Turns out the “appraisal” was a very nonstandard valuation based on “Extraordinary Assumptions” and “Hypothetical conditions”---not what a reasonable buyer would pay!! And one any bank would laugh you out of the room for presenting.

John McBride, one of the most respected developers and businessmen

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