Election Statistics
May 16 I found these Election Statistics quite interesting. Several people are working on more analyses. More stats will be added as we complete them. If you have a particular analysis you want to see, please make a request on the blog, and we will consider it.
Q: Correlate Museum vote to the Mayor’s vote:
659 (64.04%) who voted for Mick #1 voted AGAINST the Museum.
413 (54.27%) who voted for Marilyn #1 voted AGAINST the Museum.
Q: Who did LJ’s voters (420 1st place votes) favor in the Mayor’s runoff?
57 “Bullet voted” on for LJ (14%) only. (failed to participate in the run-off.)
181 ranked Marilyn above Mick. (43%)
170 ranked Mick above Marilyn (40.5%)
Q: What percentage were early voters?
32% Total votes 2,544. 803 voters “walked in” before May 2 to vote early.
Voting started as early as April 10, one week after the deadline some candidates entered the races.
Additionally 239 were mail-in absentee votes, bring the total who voted before election day to 41% of the total vote.
Q How did “Early voters” compare with Election Day (and mail in) voters?
26% of “early voters” bullet voted only for one mayoral candidate—(made no rankings)
20% of Election Day and Mail in voters voted only for one mayoral candidate—(making no rankings)
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46% of Early Voters ranked Ireland as #1 rank for Mayor.
41% of Election Day voters (and Mail ins) ranked Ireland #1 for Mayor.
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66% of the “Early Voters” skipped at least 4 rankings in the Council Race.
57% of Election Day and Mail-in voters skipped at least 4 rankings in the Council Race.
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57.5% of the “Early Voters” skipped at least 5 rankings in the council race.
47% of the Election Day and Mail in voters skipped 5 rankings in the council race.
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20% of Early voters ranked J.Johnson as #1 rank for Council.
17% of Election Day voters (and Mail ins) ranked J. Johnson as #1 for Council.
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16% of Early voters ranked Derek Johnson as #1 rank for Council.
17.5% of Election day Voters (and Mail ins) ranked Derek Johnson #1 for Council.
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11.5% of Early voters ranked Torre as #1 for Council.
11.5% of Election Day voters ranked Torre as #1 for Council.
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12% of Early Voters ranked Kasabach as #1 for Council.
9% of Election Day voters ranked Kasabach as #1 for Council.
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16% of Early Voters ranked Frisch as #1 for council
16% of Election Day voters ranked Frisch as #1 for Council.
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16% of Early Voters ranked Behrendt as #1 for Council
13% of Election Day voters ranked Behrendt as #1 for Council.
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Q: What percentage of voters “bullet voted” for their mayoral candidate? (Voted for only one candidate, without casting any potential “run-off” votes.)
Ireland 322 single votes, of 1089 total votes, or 30%.
Marks 135 single votes, of 877 total votes, or 15%.
LJ 58 single votes, of 420, or 14%.
Kole 18 single votes, of 126, or 14.3%
In total, 22% bullet voted for mayor. 20% of Election day and Mail in voters bullet voted. 26% of “early voters” bullet voted.
Q: What was the voter participation in the Council race?
35 people of 2544 voters did not vote in the Council race, or 1.4%
Q: What was participation in the Council “instant run-off”?
915 voters, or 36% voted for 3 or less Council members, taking a risk that they would not participate in the run-off.
Q: If Council Race is tabulated in the same method as Mayor race (Sequential Elimination), who are the winners?
Derek Johnson and Adam Frisch
Q: What were the 9th place rankings?
Jack Johnson 255
Brian Speck 113
Wampler 101
Jason Lasser 97
Jackie Kasabach 65
Frisch 50
Torre 47
D Johnson 28
Behrendt 24
Q: Did voters tend to fully rank the Council race?
1307 of 2544, or 51% left blanks in five consecutive slots.
Q: How did Mail-in ballots compare with ballots cast in person?
4.2% (10 of 239) mail in ballots were spoiled and did not count in Council race.
0.5% (12 of 2305) in person ballots were spoiled and did not count in Council race.
Of the 12 in-person ballots that were completely spoiled , 8 were in one polling place, Community Church (W Francis).
Q: How many people did not vote in Mayor’s race?
16 of 2544, or 0.6%
Q: How many people did not vote in the Council race?
38 skipped the race, and 19 ballots completely spoiled, for total of 57 or 2.2%.
Q:Who did Ireland's voters favor in the Council race?
See http://theredant.squarespace.com/storage/IrelandCCrankings.pdf
(similar analysis for Marks' voters in process.
Post your comments and conclusions below.
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Reader Comments (2)
The voting process should be as easy as possible so that all registered voters feel that they understand the process and are not frustrated or bored through the middle of voting. IRV is not this.
How was this election decided? By Election Voodoo or Footbal Rules. A form of artificial goal post setting.
For Mayor
http://www.aspenpitkin.com/pdfs/depts/38/Aspen%20Mayor%20Round5.htm
CANDIDATE THIS ROUND TOTAL STATUS
Mick Ireland (4) 0 1273 ELECTED -- 4th round
For Council Seat 1 - ttp://www.aspenpitkin.com/pdfs/depts/38/Aspen
Council Seat 1 Round 4.htm ROUND 4 -- Jack Johnson (2) has been DEFEATED -- transferring all votes.
CANDIDATE THIS ROUND TOTAL STATUS
Derek Johnson (8) +40 1273 ELECTED -- 4th round For Council Seat 2
http://www.aspenpitkin.com/pdfs/depts/38/Aspen%20Council%20Seat%202%20Ro\und3.htm
ROUND 3 -- Michael Behrendt (5) has been DEFEATED -- transferring all votes. CANDIDATE THIS ROUND TOTAL STATUS
Torre (4) +200 1273 ELECTED -- 3rd round